Eventus International today hosted a live discussion ahead of the Prediction Markets Summit Europe, scheduled to take place in Gibraltar on 9–10 November 2026. The event brought together experts in regulation, compliance, technology, payments and market development to examine the future of prediction markets, which have evolved from a niche product into a central topic in the international debate surrounding gambling, financial services and digital infrastructure.
The discussion was opened and moderated by journalist Bill Speros, who highlighted the extraordinary growth recorded by the sector during the FIFA World Cup. According to figures cited during the session, the tournament generated more than $30 billion in total trading volume. Kalshi reportedly recorded approximately $27 billion in contracts throughout the competition, while its World Cup winner market became the largest single market ever offered on the platform, reaching nearly $1.9 billion in volume. On the day of the final alone, the Kalshi app was downloaded more than 200,000 times. Polymarket, meanwhile, handled hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume on the Argentina–Spain final.
According to Speros, these figures demonstrate that prediction markets have entered the mainstream, driven by users’ ability to take positions on future events, monitor collective market sentiment in real time and, in many cases, buy or sell contracts before the underlying event is concluded.
The discussion began with Gibraltar’s newly introduced regulatory framework, described as one of Europe’s first attempts to establish dedicated rules for prediction markets. Speros referred to comments made by Gibraltar’s Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, Nigel Feetham, who has argued that the jurisdiction decided to act while many others continue to hesitate, recognising the economic, technological and financial opportunities presented by prediction markets. Gibraltar’s stated objective is to prioritise high-quality operators and attract credible businesses capable of contributing to the development of the local ecosystem.
Genia Gurevich, an iGaming regulatory expert at Porat Group, observed that regulatory vacuums in the gambling industry rarely remain unfilled. Whenever traditional gambling regulation becomes more restrictive, operators and investors tend to seek new products and new operating models. From this perspective, prediction markets occupy a particularly interesting position because they sit at the intersection of sports betting, financial instruments, event trading and, in certain cases, digital assets.
According to Gurevich, the key question for regulators concerns the nature of the underlying event. A contract based on the outcome of a sporting event shares many characteristics with sports betting, while contracts linked to economic indicators, political developments or financial events may fall within an entirely different regulatory framework. As a result, there is no single legal classification that can be applied across all markets, and this uncertainty simultaneously creates opportunities and regulatory risks.
She described Gibraltar’s initiative as significant because it seeks to establish a framework before the market develops entirely outside regulatory oversight. Gurevich stressed the importance of protecting consumers while allowing operators to build sustainable business models. Regulatory certainty, she added, also facilitates relationships with banks, technology providers and payment service providers, all of which generally prefer working with licensed businesses.
Barry Orr, Chief Marketing Officer at Solas Compliance and a veteran of the betting exchange sector, focused on the distinction between regulation and what he described as the “strangulation” of a market. In his view, banning or excessively restricting access to prediction markets would not prevent consumers from using them but would instead drive activity toward less regulated environments.
Orr drew parallels with the early development of betting exchanges, which initially faced considerable scepticism from regulators. Proper regulation, he argued, can raise standards across the industry, encourage innovation and push traditional operators to rethink products, promotions and customer engagement strategies.
One of the principal risks identified by Orr is the tendency of start-ups to treat compliance as a legal review conducted at the end of the development process rather than as a strategic function embedded from the outset. When businesses focus primarily on rapid market expansion, fragmented procedures, inconsistent marketing messages, delayed product launches and increased regulatory exposure often follow.
For Orr, compliance should be fully integrated into operational workflows and marketing campaigns. Communication represents the first point of contact between platforms and consumers and should accurately explain the product, avoid overemphasising risk or potential returns, and include appropriate responsible messaging. Properly structured compliance can therefore become a competitive advantage by reducing friction between marketing teams, legal departments and regulators while enabling operators to scale more efficiently in regulated markets.
Livy Milshtein, Vice President of Partnerships at Plaee, a company providing infrastructure for prediction market operators, identified three key drivers behind the sector’s current expansion: growing consumer demand, the availability of technology and real-time data capable of supporting live trading, and the gradual establishment of trust and legitimacy through emerging regulatory frameworks.
Milshtein argued that regulatory clarity is the first prerequisite for responsible growth, but not the only one. The industry also requires reliable infrastructure, effective market management and, above all, sufficient liquidity. Without an adequate number of participants and counterparties, contracts cannot be traded efficiently.
While market makers and institutional investors can provide liquidity, Milshtein stressed that their participation must be accompanied by rules designed to prevent unfair advantages over retail users. Orr echoed this concern, warning that professional trading firms and major liquidity providers could otherwise dominate markets over time, reducing participation by smaller traders. Consequently, future market development should be assessed not only in terms of trading volumes but also by examining market quality and fairness.
Milshtein also referred to the United States, where operators authorised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) can offer event contracts under a federal regulatory framework. At the same time, several individual states are attempting to classify certain products—particularly sports-related contracts—as gambling activities falling under state gambling laws. The overlap between federal and state jurisdictions has already generated significant litigation and may ultimately require a definitive ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court.
The discussion highlighted the contrast between the American and European approaches. In the United States, classification generally depends on the federal regulatory framework governing event contracts, whereas European regulators more frequently assess the nature of the underlying event, distinguishing between sports, finance and other categories. This fragmented landscape makes the development of a consistent cross-border offering considerably more complex.
Chen Ben David, Director of Payments at Rapyd, addressed payment processing, noting that prediction markets also represent a difficult category for financial service providers. Every transaction must be assessed according to the relevant jurisdiction, the operator’s licence and the specific product being offered.
According to Ben David, the success of prediction market platforms depends on providing seamless deposits, local payment methods and fast withdrawals. Experience gained in fintech, cryptocurrency and online gambling demonstrates that users increasingly expect payment services to be both immediate and reliable.
However, without clear regulatory frameworks, payment providers may decide to terminate relationships with operators, as has occurred in other sectors that initially developed within legal grey areas. Regulatory certainty is therefore essential not only for licensing purposes but also to ensure uninterrupted payment services, continued access to banking facilities and the long-term sustainability of operators’ business models.
Market integrity also emerged as a central theme. Orr highlighted the possibility that certain event contracts could be vulnerable to insider information, market manipulation or informational advantages unavailable to the wider public. In his view, operators should carefully consider whether particular markets ought to be offered, even where they may be legally permissible, since consumer confidence and corporate reputation can be damaged very quickly.
Milshtein drew comparisons with financial markets, where the existence of privileged information does not justify banning trading altogether. Instead, stock exchanges rely on monitoring, reporting obligations and supervisory mechanisms to detect and address insider dealing. He suggested that prediction markets could adopt similar safeguards by introducing systems capable of identifying unusual trading patterns and potential insider trading.
The panellists also agreed that the industry must communicate more clearly about the nature of its products. Many users first encountered prediction markets during the U.S. elections or the FIFA World Cup without fully understanding how they differ from either traditional sports betting or financial trading. Greater transparency regarding probabilities, fees, potential returns and maximum losses will therefore be essential to building long-term credibility.
The discussion also explored the future evolution of the European market. According to Orr, growth may increasingly occur through partnerships between specialist prediction market platforms and established betting operators seeking to integrate event contracts into their existing offerings. White-label technology, strategic partnerships and industry consolidation could become key routes to market.
Gibraltar may emerge as both a regulatory and technological hub for operators looking to expand into other jurisdictions, although entering Asian markets is expected to remain particularly challenging. The longer-term objective will be to transform Gibraltar’s domestic regulatory framework into a model capable of achieving broader international recognition.
In their closing remarks, Orr identified market integrity as the essential foundation for earning the trust of both regulators and consumers. Milshtein emphasised the need to attract institutional liquidity while developing infrastructure capable of supporting the safe launch of new products. Gurevich reiterated the importance of clear regulatory guidance that protects consumers without stifling innovation, while Ben David confirmed that the availability of reliable payment services will depend directly on the establishment of recognised and predictable regulatory frameworks.
The Eventus International discussion ultimately demonstrated that the rapid growth of prediction markets is accompanied by a wide range of unresolved issues, including legal classification, jurisdictional conflicts, consumer protection, liquidity, insider information, market integrity, communications, payment infrastructure and access to financial services. These issues are expected to take centre stage at the Prediction Markets Summit Europe in Gibraltar, promoted as the first European event dedicated entirely to the prediction markets sector.
